World market - Winter crops - Incubator

The USDA has not changed the forecast for wheat production in Russia - 83 million tons, with an expected export of 48 million tons. The forecast for corn has been reduced to 14.1 million tons, with an export of 4.2 million tons. In the EU, wheat production will be 2 million tons less. Ukraine has increased wheat exports to 14 million tons. Kazakhstan will harvest 16 million tons of wheat. The global forecast for wheat production has been increased to 798.28 million tons.

Grain prices on April 21, 2025, showed a decrease in corn, wheat, and oats prices on the CBOT and KCBT exchanges, while rough rice prices slightly increased on the CBOT.

Prices for wheat futures in the USA have dropped on all exchanges. In Chicago, the price has decreased by 10–11 cents, in Kansas City – by 6–7 cents, in Minnesota – by 5–7 cents.

17% of spring wheat has been planted in the USA, with 2% of the areas already sprouted, while winter wheat covers 15% of the areas. The quality assessment of winter wheat has decreased by 2 points to 45%. Rain is expected on the Great Plains.

The government of Great Britain has refused to use its military ships to unload Ukrainian grain from the blocked port of Odessa in the Black Sea. Negotiations are ongoing between the USA (on behalf of the UN) and Russia.

The Wall Street Journal reports on the possible lifting of sanctions on Belarusian fertilizers in exchange for transit of grain through Belarus.

Grain prices on April 16, 2025, showed an increase:

• Corn - 484.25 ¢/bsh (+0.62%)
• SRW Wheat - 547.75 ¢/bsh (+1.06%)
• HRW Wheat - 558.00 ¢/bsh (+0.90%)
• HRS Wheat - 603.75 ¢/bsh (+0.42%)
• Oats - 347.50 ¢/bsh (+1.39%)
• Rough Rice - 13.40 usd/cwt (-2.40%)

Russia aims to increase grain and legume supplies to Turkey, ensuring a stable trade flow. Logistics, finances, and settlements are important to overcome possible obstacles. Company representatives are discussing new logistic solutions to boost trade volumes.

In the Azov Sea, the blockade of some Turkish cargo ships continues due to mines. A total of 22 vessels have been arrested. Turkey is strengthening its mine clearance services due to the increased threat. Three drifting mines have been detected near the coast.

The Minister of Economic Development has announced an increase in trade with Thailand in agricultural products, including wheat, fruits, and rice. CP Foods investments in Russia and the use of lands to grow soybeans for Asian markets are also being discussed. Negotiations are underway for the supply of fertilizers for future crops to prevent food crises.

Kazakhstan is planning to expand trade with Iran to $1 billion and enter the markets of Pakistan, India, Southeast Asia, and East Africa.

Companies aim to increase freight transportation from 1 million to 4 million tons per year by 2025.

The Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade of Egypt is planning to purchase 4 million tons of domestic wheat, gathering it in April. The head of the department announced grain reserves for several months and confirmed the maintenance of the price of subsidized bread, despite increased expenses.

Egypt has become a diverse importer of wheat due to the crisis in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.

Grain prices on exchanges on 08.04.25: corn rose by 4.50 ¢/bsh, wheat SRW - by 3.50 ¢/bsh, wheat HRW - by 2.25 ¢/bsh, wheat HRS - by 7.00 ¢/bsh, oats fell by 6.75 ¢/bsh, rough rice rose by 0.19 usd/cwt.

Corn on CBOT went up, SRW wheat decreased, HRS fell on the MGE exchange, and oats on CBOT also decreased. Rice quotes on CBOT remained stable.