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The plans of the Indian government include boosting wheat purchases for the state fund. However, traders express concerns that increased state purchases may lead to a restriction of supply in the country's domestic market, as reported by Interfax, citing S&P agency.
Russian exporters do not currently anticipate the opening of the Indian market to Russian wheat. Therefore, they consider it better to focus on supplying leguminous crops.
As noted by S&P, representatives of the Food Corporation of India (FCI) stated that the government intends to procure around 33.5 million tonnes of wheat for state warehouses, almost 28% more than the actual purchases of 26.2 million tonnes in the previous year.
"We expect an increase in purchases due to a slight growth in production volume. However, certain problems have arisen due to recent rains, which have made harvesting more challenging," said an FCI representative.
The government is operating on the forecast that wheat production in India in the current agricultural year 2023/2024 (July-June) will amount to 112 million tonnes, slightly exceeding the 110.55 million tonnes harvested in the previous season. However, according to an S&P survey of analysts and traders, wheat harvest in India in the current agricultural year 2023/2024 is likely to be slightly lower, ranging from 107 to 108 million tonnes.
"We no longer expect the Indian market to open for wheat imports in this or the upcoming season. If this opening did not happen before the elections scheduled for May, it is unlikely to occur after them," said the chairman of the Grain Exporters Union, Eduard Zernin. "The Indian government aims to secure itself with key agricultural crops. Acting in this direction, it has successfully stabilized domestic wheat prices through the use of the state reserve."
In his opinion, more promising for Russian agricultural exports are supplies of leguminous crops.
As Zernin mentioned, peas, chickpeas, and lentils are highly popular in India.
"These crops are successfully grown in Russia, and we are observing an increasing trend in the areas under these crops. Representatives of the Indian Legume Association at our recent grain forum in Dubai emphasized the need to sign a bilateral government agreement to facilitate deliveries of leguminous products from Russia. It is worth noting that such agreements already exist with Canada, our main competitor," he added.
