In North Africa (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco), the share of the world's wheat import is about 15%. During the 2024/25 season, the demand for this important food product in these countries remained stable, leading to a 1% increase in wheat imports. Russia has become the main supplier, displacing competitors from Europe.
According to data published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in a July report, the total volume of wheat exports from Russia in the 2024/25 season decreased due to a reduction in overall supply volumes, but shipments to North African countries increased. Russia was able to adjust its supplies due to decreased exports from the European Union. It was noted that Russia captured almost half of the market in this region, and its market share in Egypt was about 70%, making it almost the sole wheat supplier to Libya. Exports to Tunisia increased by 50%, and in Morocco, shipments more than doubled, compensating for the reduction in supplies from France.
Wheat exports from Ukraine to this region in the 2024/25 season continued to recover after a significant decline at the beginning of the season. This year, Ukraine successfully expanded its presence in the North African markets, utilizing geographical and logistical advantages. For example, Algeria became the third-largest market, with exports increasing almost threefold in the past year. Ukraine's supplies to Tunisia increased by more than 50%, due to a sharp reduction in exports from EU countries to this nation.
As a result of decreased export volumes, the EU's market share in this region decreased to just over 25%. France, facing the lowest crop yields in decades, experienced a drop in exports to many markets, including Morocco and Algeria. The Algerian government did not include France in wheat supply negotiations over the past year, leading to no deliveries since July 2024.
While other European exporters located near the Black Sea, such as Romania and Bulgaria, increased shipments to Algeria, Russia and Ukraine increased their market shares.
Looking ahead to the 2025/26 season, analysts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture expect an increase in the overall volume of wheat exports from both the EU and Russia, while exports from Ukraine are forecasted to slightly decrease. It is noteworthy that the EU is expected to have a significantly higher harvest, and the largest exporter, France, is expected to see a production recovery. Additionally, the EU has taken trade measures restricting the volumes of wheat Ukraine can export to its market. This will force Ukraine to compete with the EU to increase exports to other markets. The increase in wheat shipments by major exporters will likely intensify competition for market share in North Africa in the 2025/26 season, where a slight increase in imports is expected.
