Grain and Winter Crops Market: Overview and Trends - Incubator

Russia seeks to finalize outstanding agreements on the grain deal by July 18th. New contacts and consultations are possible. Russia demands the launch of the ammonia pipeline, acknowledging the difficulties. The completion of the deal depends on the UN.

In Stavropol Krai, the first million tons of grain have been harvested, with 15% of the area processed. The best crop yields are in Kochubeyevsk and Novoaleksandrovsk districts – 72.4 and 64.6 c/ha, respectively. The average yield in the region is 40.4 c/ha.

Prices for commodities on CBOT and KCBT exchanges changed on 27.06.25:

• Corn on CBOT - 417.50 ¢/bsh (+8.00)
• Soft wheat on CBOT - 524.75 ¢/bsh (+3.75)
• Hard wheat on KCBT - 516.00 ¢/bsh (-2.25)
• Hard red spring wheat on MGE - 608.00 ¢/bsh (+1.25)
• Oats on CBOT - 385.25 ¢/bsh (+20.00)
• Rough rice on CBOT - 13.10 usd/cwt (+0.06)

A grain trader from Rostov demands 5.6 billion rubles from the Central Bank of Syria and a company for breaching contracts. The lawsuit is related to events in Syria following Assad's overthrow.

The company "Pallada" earned 21.5 billion rubles and is listed in the top 25 companies in the Rostov region.

The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation plans to increase the total grain harvest to 135 million tons, including 90 million tons of wheat. The grain export is expected to be around 53-55 million tons. The International Grains Council (IGC) does not change its forecast for the grain harvest in Russia for the next season, leaving it at the level of 120.6 million tons.

Starting from July 2, 2025, the tariffs will change:

Prices for wheat and muesli will decrease, barley prices will remain the same, and corn prices will increase. The changes will come into effect after publication.

Grain prices on 26.06.25: corn on CBOT - 409.50 ¢/bsh, wheat SRW - 521.00 ¢/bsh, wheat HRW KCBT - 518.25 ¢/bsh, wheat HRS MGE - 606.75 ¢/bsh, oats on CBOT - 365.25 ¢/bsh, rough rice CBOT - 13.04 usd/cwt.

Six wheat contracts were sold on Russian exchanges on June 27, 2025: 1299 tons at 15600 rubles per ton. Prices on the exchange vary from 15200 to 16000 rubles per ton.

The import limit for rice from Vietnam to Russia in 2025 will increase by 1.6% to 7403 tons. Belarus is expected to decrease by 0.6% to 2447 tons. The quota for Armenia will decrease to 150 tons. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan do not use the quota. The total limit in the EAEU is 10,000 tons of long-grain rice.

Harvesting has started in the Kuban region. Farmers have already harvested more than 35,000 hectares of grain, with plans to harvest 1.7 million hectares of winter crops. 40,000 machines, including 8,000 combines, are involved in the work.

The region annually produces more than 10% of the grain crop in Russia. In 2024, 13.8 million tons were harvested.

Putin has offered Turkey 1 million tons of grain for processing and shipment to countries in need. The deal could be financed by Qatar. Russia sees this as an alternative to the Black Sea deal, as its activity has been suspended. Discussions are also underway regarding the transportation of military cargo to Ukraine.

Tunisia is interested in increasing grain purchases from Russia. The Head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov, noted readiness to provide support. The President of Tunisia also expressed interest. Harvests in Russia are high, allowing to meet the demand for exports.