Russian market - Winter crops - Fork Cast

The Hydrometeorological Center forecast: the probability of May frosts recurring in the center of Russia is 20-40%. In the south of the country, the risk is almost non-existent. The overall probability of frosts in May has decreased compared to the last century. Last year, the frosts were devastating, nearly 1 million hectares of crops were destroyed.

Warm winter contributes to the improvement of winter crops, but the risk of crop failure remains high due to lack of precipitation. Experts warn about the unstable situation and possible threats to the harvest. It is important to increase the amount of rainfall to compensate for the drought.

Company "EPT" plans to supply 26 million tons of grain to Iran from 2024 to 2035, with the possibility of increasing the volume to 55 million tons. The agreement is signed with the Iranian company IranianEurasia.

The project aims to increase trade turnover and develop the "North-South" transportation corridor.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia has contacted the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia with a request to index prices for fertilizers. Manufacturers have proposed a 15% price increase starting from January 2025. The "frozen" prices will be in effect until May 2025.

Rosselkhoznadzor has expressed concern over the violation of temporary restrictions on the import of Kazakh wheat into Russia. Cases of grain products being imported without direct transshipment have been registered, posing a risk of spreading harmful organisms. Compliance with quarantine and phytosanitary requirements is required.

State crop quality monitoring of the 2024 harvest in the Orenburg branch of the Federal State Budgetary Institution "TSOK APK" has been successfully completed. A total of 2.9 million tons of grain were examined, with over 64,000 tests conducted.

Results:

• Soft wheat - 37.6% third grade, 32.2% fourth grade, 27.7% fifth grade;
• Hard wheat - 29.6% third grade, 44.2% fourth grade, 24.8% fifth grade.

In the Rostov Region, due to lack of rains, less than 10% of winter crops have already sprouted for the 2025 harvest, while the rest are at the tillering stage due to lack of moisture in the soil. Authorities are considering support options for agricultural producers in case of crop failure. This year, due to drought, farmers lost 50,000 hectares of crops, resulting in damage worth 5 billion rubles.

In 2024, in the Altai region, 8.4 million tons of grain and leguminous crops were harvested, including record yields for oilseeds, spring wheat, oats, and barley. The harvest included 3.4 million tons of spring wheat, over 740 thousand tons of buckwheat, over 530 thousand tons of barley, over 440 thousand tons of oats, and over 150 thousand tons of lentils.

In 10 months of 2024, the Rostov region exported 3.04 million tons of wheat, which is 11% more than the previous year. The exported products went to Turkey, Egypt, Greece, and Albania.

In November, 265.1 thousand tons of grain were sent, with the main buyers being Turkey, Albania, Tunisia, Iran, and Lebanon. (Source: RBC Rostov)

Russia will reduce rye collection to 1.3 million tons this year. The rye harvest decreased from 7.1 million tons in 2002 to 1.4 million tons in 2019. Producers are concerned about the decline in interest in rye due to low prices and unprofitability. It is possible that rye bread will become a rarity.

It is projected that grain harvest in Russia will exceed 139.5 million tons by 2025, with a yield reaching 29 quintals per hectare. The implementation of modern technologies and government support contribute to increasing crop yields without expanding farmland.

In the north of Siberia, the Far East, and the Urals, cold weather down to minus 30 degrees is expected, while in the south of Western Siberia there will be high temperatures. It will be especially cold in Taymyr and Chukotka. In other regions, temperatures will return to around zero.