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Starting from February 1, the export duty on sunflower oil will increase by 1719 rubles and reach 17786 rubles per ton, based on the indicative price of 1068 dollars per ton, compared to 1027 dollars per ton last month. The duty on sunflower meal in February will decrease by 882.9 rubles and will amount to 3888 rubles per ton. The rate is calculated based on the indicative price of 212.2 dollars per ton (compared to 221.1 dollars in January).
The Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Conditions, Dmitry Ryolko, points out the inertial increase in the duty on sunflower oil, as global prices for it are not rising. Farmers are holding back sunflower seed sales, leading to a "guaranteed negative" in prices even for large processors. Ryolko comments on the situation, saying that many are refusing to buy sunflower, but this may last for a few weeks, not indefinitely.
The expert also notes that until December, processing and export volumes of sunflower were at a record high, despite a 2 million-ton crop reduction compared to last year and a decrease in stocks. Therefore, small businesses may start shutting down, and large processors may reduce processing volumes. This situation is observed in all sunflower-producing countries, emphasizes Ryolko. He notes that the crisis has affected everyone, as there is less sunflower in the world, and soy oil prices were formed against the backdrop of the expectation of record soybean production.
In addition, market uncertainty related to U.S. President Donald Trump's policies, who might start to put pressure on the biodiesel program, which is likely to lead to a decrease in soy oil prices. However, due to dry conditions, soy production in South America may be lower than expected. Ryolko believes that global oil prices must be higher or sharply fall, otherwise the difference between seed purchase and oil sales will only grow.
It is unlikely that the current increase in duty will have any impact on domestic prices since the rate hike is insignificant, believes a source in the oil market. The price of oil in the Russian market will depend on external conditions and the situation with seed costs, which will not decrease due to the new duty. The source says that plants may try to lower sunflower prices by 1.5–2 thousand rubles, but this will not significantly boost sales. Sales, in general, are very low due to low demand, only to cover loans, and so on.
He also says that there is currently a "race for seeds": prices have already increased significantly, and under the circumstances of the urgent need to load processing plants, a new wave of sunflower price increase may occur in the market, and then oil prices will also rise. However, this directly depends on the situation in the global market.
