Rapeseed Market Trends in the Agricultural Season 2024/2025
During the agricultural season 2024/2025, according to USDA data, rapeseed consumption reached a historical maximum of 3,780.0 thousand tons. This is 15.2% higher than the previous year, 2.3 times higher than 5 years ago, and 3.1 times higher than 10 years ago. Compared to the level twenty years ago, consumption has increased by 19.4 times.
Almost all harvested rapeseed is processed. In the 2024/2025 season, 3,650.0 thousand tons of rapeseed were processed. About 130.0 thousand tons were used in unprocessed form, mainly as animal feed.
Consumption is formed by domestic rapeseed production, with import volumes being small, while significant amounts of rapeseed are exported.
Supply in the domestic market partly depends on pre-season stocks, although stocks of this agricultural raw material are traditionally small.
For example, in the 2024/2025 season, 4,650.0 thousand tons of rapeseed were harvested, of which approximately 850.0 thousand tons were exported (to China and processing plants in Belarus, according to AB-Center). Initial stocks were 38.0 thousand tons, and at the end of the season - 83.0 thousand tons.
Forecast for the Rapeseed Market Situation
According to USDA forecasts, in the 2025/2026 season (based on the 2025 harvest), a noticeable increase in rapeseed seed yield is expected in Russia - up to 5,300.0 thousand tons.
However, the agency forecasts a decrease in consumption to 3,750.0 thousand tons, with consumption in unprocessed form increasing to 150.0 thousand tons, and processing volume decreasing to 3,600.0 thousand tons.
All yield growth will be directed towards exports (1,500.0 thousand tons compared to 850.0 thousand tons in the previous year).
AB-Center Comments on USDA Forecast
The decrease in processing volumes against the backdrop of increased seed yield may be due to limited processing capacities in the country as well as the forecast regarding further demand growth in global markets, mainly from China.
According to USDA data, in the 2024/2025 season, 1,424.0 thousand tons of rapeseed oil were produced from 3,650.0 thousand tons of rapeseed seeds. This amounts to about 118.7 thousand tons of oil per month. According to Rosstat, production exceeded 128.0 thousand tons for 5 months of the season and 135.0 thousand tons for 2 months. At maximum capacity utilization, it is expected to produce 1,638.0 thousand tons of oil per year. This will require 4,200.0 thousand tons of rapeseed seeds. Although this will not allow processing the entire yield (5,300.0 tons), increased demand could significantly boost oil production.
In the perspective of the 2025/2026 season, an expansion of processing capacities is possible, which will contribute to a significant increase in production. Therefore, domestic consumption for processing will largely depend on the demand for rapeseed oil in global markets.
If global demand for rapeseed oil from Russia decreases or cannot keep up with the growing capacities of domestic producers, an increase in rapeseed exports is possible (which may require a revision of export duties towards reduction).
Main Risks in Rapeseed Processing:
– Dependency on Exports. Domestic consumption of rapeseed oil in the country is small (150-190 thousand tons per year).
– Lack of Diversification in Rapeseed Oil Supplies to Different Countries. Russian processing and its prospects largely depend on demand from China.
However, within the country, there is a high demand for rapeseed cake and meal, allowing processing companies to focus on the domestic market.