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An unusually warm and snowless winter this year is having a positive impact on the sowing of winter crops, according to information published in the Russian Gazette. However, nature has the ability to compensate for anomalies. Therefore, the risk of losing the winter crops remains persistent, experts warn.
In Moscow on January 27, the temperature rose to plus 6 degrees, which is more characteristic of the beginning of April rather than midwinter, noted Evgeny Tishkovets, a leading specialist at the "Phobos" weather center, in his Telegram channel. It is forecasted that February will be similar. In addition, a small amount of precipitation is expected in both January and February. The warm winter and lack of moisture in the soil are expected to worsen the conditions for sowing winter crops in the European part of Russia, according to specialists from the Hydrometeorological Center.
The warm and snowless winter is currently having a positive effect on the overall situation with winter crop sowing, reported Dmitry Rylko, General Director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Conjecture (IKAR). According to the autumn calculations of 2024, the Krasnodar region, the Kherson region, the Luhansk People's Republic, and other regions showed unprecedented figures - 38% poor and underdeveloped winter crops, according to data from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center. Ministry of Agriculture calculations indicated that across Russia (excluding new regions), the condition of winter crops was good on only 5.48 million hectares - the smallest area before winter in the last 23 years, with an estimated total of about 19 million hectares sown with winter crops based on preliminary data from the Ministry of Agriculture.
Currently, the situation in the southern regions of Russia regarding winter crop sowing has significantly improved and no longer appears as bleak as it did at the beginning of winter. At the same time, the east of the Krasnodar region and nearly the entire Stavropol region are considered very promising, experts note.
However, the overall situation remains very uncertain and risky. In fact, the risks have increased, according to Rylko.
First of all, about two-thirds of winter crops are currently experiencing drought conditions - precipitation levels are significantly below normal. This particularly affects the Central Chernozem region and the south of Russia.
"To address this deficit, it is necessary for an unusually large amount of precipitation to fall from early February to early March, significantly exceeding the annual average. However, the forecast for the beginning of February indicates that precipitation levels will remain low," warns Rylko.
Secondly, the expert continues, when the balance is disrupted (as is currently the case in most of the European territory of Russia), nature can suddenly compensate for this. The conditions and timing of such compensation play a key role. For instance, sudden strong frosts without snow cover can occur without warning. Or there may be late frosts in April-May, as was the case last year. Both scenarios pose serious threats to the winter crop yield, Rylko warns.
As of now, IKAR has not changed its yield forecasts for 2025: 125-130 million tons of grain, of which 78-88 million tons will be wheat. However, the situation could change significantly.
In recent years, a new belt has emerged in Russia where winter crop sowing is actively expanding: in the Tula, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Ulyanovsk regions, and other regions. Climate change is strongly felt in agriculture, emphasizes Rylko.
According to preliminary data from Rosstat, in 2024 the harvest of cereals and legumes amounted to 124.96 million tons in net weight, under unfavorable weather conditions, including 82.4 million tons of wheat. In 2023, 144.9 million tons of grain were harvested, of which 98.2 million tons were wheat.
