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The amount of produced commercial milk is expected to reach 26.3 million tons in 2025, which corresponds to the level of the previous year. The National Union of Milk Producers, known as Soyuzmoloko, presented this forecast at a round table of the State Duma's Committee on Agricultural Issues, said the CEO Artem Belov. He noted that the forecast for the current year is conservative, with a slight increase expected.
The Union has developed two scenarios for the industry's development, but the forecast for commercial milk production in both scenarios turned out to be the same. The first scenario assumes that the retail price growth of dairy products will offset the increase in production costs. The second scenario involves price growth below the inflation rate.
According to the first scenario, milk product imports this year will amount to 7.5 million tons in milk equivalent, which is 7.5% more than the previous year. Milk reserves at enterprises will decrease to 1 million tons. Under the second scenario, imports will increase to 8 million tons, and reserves will amount to 0.5 million tons. Exports will remain at 1.1 million tons, as in 2024.
By 2030, according to the union's forecast, the amount of produced commercial milk could reach 31.3 million tons. Milk self-sufficiency will increase to 88.2%, and imports will decrease by 18% to 5.8 million tons. Meanwhile, exports will increase by 44% and reach 1.5 million tons.
At the XVI Congress of the National Union of Milk Producers in January, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev noted the stable growth of the industry, referring to the production of raw milk in 2024, estimated at 34 million tons. He also emphasized the need for further increasing the production of dairy products to achieve the goal of the Food Security Doctrine regarding milk, where the milk production volume will exceed 38 million tons by 2030. Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut also highlighted the need to increase the number of dairy cattle and the average productivity of breeding cows.
