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The forecast for grain collection in Russia has been reduced, leading to a decrease in exports: analysis by the USDA for the upcoming season.
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The forecast for grain collection in Russia has been reduced, leading to a decrease in exports: analysis by the USDA for the upcoming season.

The US Department of Agriculture has reduced the forecast for wheat harvest in Russia by 5 million tons to 83 million tons, with remaining stocks declining from 7.99 million tons to 7.74 million tons. Wheat exports have decreased by 4 million tons.

The corn forecast is 15.4 million tons, with exports at 5 million tons. Production of feed grains has decreased to 40.43 million tons, with exports at 10.2 million tons.

13 June 2024 13 June 2024

In its June report, the Ministry of Agriculture of the United States reduced the forecast for wheat production in the new agricultural season (July 2024-June 2025) in Russia by 5 million tonnes, to 83 million tonnes. The estimate for remaining stocks was also reduced from 7.99 million to 7.74 million tonnes.

The forecast for wheat exports from the Russian Federation also decreased and is estimated at 48 million tonnes (a decrease of 4 million tonnes compared to the May report).

The forecast for corn production in the new agricultural season has been reduced to 15.4 million tonnes (from 16 million tonnes last month). The projected corn export will amount to 5 million tonnes (a decrease of 200 thousand), and the remaining stocks will be 0.41 million tonnes (a decrease of 500 thousand).

The production of fodder grains has also decreased from 41.53 million to 40.43 million tonnes, with exports estimated at 10.2 million tonnes (compared to the previous 10.65 million tonnes), and the remaining stocks will be 1.22 million tonnes (compared to 1.97 million tonnes).

The wheat export estimate for Russia's main competitor, the European Union, has been increased by 1 million tonnes to 35 million tonnes. Conversely, the forecast for wheat production in the EU decreased by 1.5 million tonnes to 130.5 million tonnes.

The forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine is 13 million tonnes (a decrease of 1 million). The wheat production forecast has decreased to 19.5 million tonnes (a decrease of 1.5 million). Remaining stocks will decrease from 1.06 million to 0.96 million tonnes. At the same time, the forecast for corn production has increased by 700 thousand to 27.7 million tonnes, and corn exports have also increased to 24.5 million tonnes (an increase of 500 thousand).

The wheat harvest forecast in Kazakhstan remains unchanged at 14.5 million tonnes. Exports also remain unchanged at 10.5 million tonnes. The estimate for remaining stocks is 2.18 million tonnes.

The global wheat harvest forecast for the next agricultural season has decreased to 790.75 million tonnes (a reduction of 7.44 million), while the fodder grains harvest is forecasted at 1.51119 billion tonnes (compared to 1.51262 billion tonnes in the previous report). Corn harvest is forecasted at 1.22054 billion tonnes (compared to 1.21993 billion tonnes).

In its forecasts, the USDA does not take into account data from Crimea and new territories.

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