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On January 14, 2025, Tuesday turned out to be ambiguous for the wheat market. The soft red winter wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose in March to $200.71 per ton, while the hard red winter wheat (HRW) futures on the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) fell to $206.04 per ton, and the hard red spring wheat futures (HRS) on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) were at $216.60 per ton.
The dollar against the euro decreased but still remains close to a two-year high.
By the close of trading on Tuesday, SRW futures in Chicago rose 1 ¼ cents to $5.46-1/4. HRW futures in Kansas City fell by ¼ cent to $5.60-3/4, and spring wheat futures in Minneapolis dropped by 4 cents to $5.89-1/2.
In some areas of the Western Plains, there is very little snow, with a small amount of precipitation expected and the arrival of a cold front over the upcoming weekend. Weather forecasts also indicate moderate rains in drought-hit areas of Argentina over the weekend, adding additional pressure.
Japan announced a tender for the import of 132,888 tons of wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia, with 48,308 tons to be sourced from the US.
On Tuesday, Jordan's state grain buyer purchased around 60,000 tons of hard milling wheat at an international auction. The expected price of wheat was $267.60 per ton, including cost and freight (C&F) for shipment in the second half of March, and the purchase was made from the trading house CHS.
Corn futures in the US fell by less than 1% on Tuesday, as global cash markets remain stable, and production and export forecasts in Brazil continue to be adjusted. March corn futures closed at $4.74-1/2, down by 2 cents, while May corn futures closed at $4.84-3/4, a decrease of 2 cents.
According to data from the Brazilian agency CONAB, corn production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season decreased by just 0.08 million tons to 119.55 million tons. ANEC estimates corn exports from Brazil in January at 2.98 million tons, which is 0.8 million tons more than the previous forecast.
Some forecasts expect moderate rains over the weekend, which could bring relief to heat-affected Argentine crops. Argentina is a major producer of corn and soybeans, as well as a leading exporter of soybean meal and soybean oil.
Soybean futures also shifted positions on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday due to profit-taking and expectations of rain in South America. January soybean futures closed at $10.43, up by 1 ½ cents, March soybean futures closed at $10.47-1/2, a decrease of 5 ½ cents, and July soybean futures closed at $10.72-1/2, a drop of 5 ½ cents.
Contracts for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil for delivery in January 2025 on the CBOT expired.
The US Department of Agriculture reported a private export sale of 198,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2024/25 season.
According to CONAB, the soybean harvest in Brazil is estimated at 166.32 million tons, which is 0.11 million tons more than in December. ANEC forecasts soybean exports from Brazil in January at 2.19 million tons, an increase of 0.48 million tons compared to the previous estimate.
On the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, March wheat contracts closed as follows:
- Wheat (March 2024) - $200.71 per ton (20620 rub./t), a growth of 0.23%;
- Corn (March 2024) - $186.81 per ton (19190 rub./t), a decrease of 0.42%;
- Soybeans (March 2024) - $384.88 per ton (39530 rub./t), a decrease of 0.52%;
- Rice (March 2024) - $721.46 per ton (74100 rub./t), a growth of 1.57%;
- Rapeseed (ICE, March 2024) - 641.60 cad/ton (45690 rub./t), a decrease of 0.94%.
On the Paris-based Euronext exchange MATIF, wheat and corn prices also changed on Tuesday. The rally on the American wheat markets lost momentum, and the rise of the euro against the dollar highlighted the decrease in export prospects to Europe. March quotes for milling wheat on the MATIF fell to €231.25 per ton (equivalent to $236.89), and March corn quotes dropped to €215.75 per ton (equivalent to $221.40).
On the Paris-based Euronext exchange MATIF, prices for March contracts closed as follows on Tuesday:
- Milling wheat (March 2024) - $236.89 per ton (24330 rub./t), a decrease of 1.12%;
- Corn (March 2024) - $221.01 per ton (22700 rub./t), a decrease of 0.17%;
- Sunflower seed (on SAFEX exchange, March) - 10205.00 zar/ton (54680 rub./t), a growth of 0.56%;
- Sunflower oil (01/14/2024 Rotterdam, Bulk FOB) - $1180.00 per ton (121200 rub./t).
- Currency cross rates on 01/14/2025:
- 1 US Dollar = 102.7081 Rubles;
- 1 Euro = 104.8556 Rubles;
- 1 Canadian Dollar = 71.2163 Rubles;
- 10 South African Rand = 53.5798 Rubles.
