Sunflower seeds continue to increase in price across the expanses of Kazakhstan. According to the Grain Union of the Republic of Kazakhstan, over the past week, prices within the country have risen by another 10,000 tenge per ton, and in exports by $15-20, as reported by the APK News agency.
The price of flaxseed from May 5 to May 11 has revived to 290-300 thousand tenge per ton, according to the head of the Analysis Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, Yevgeny Karabanov. He noted that active demand, limited supply, and low stocks continue to support prices for this type of seed.
At the same time, Karabanov mentioned that the price of flaxseed is also rising in the countries of the European Union.
"Prices for Kazakh flaxseed for delivery in June are at 890-895 USD/t CIF Ghent. This is $15 higher than at the end of April this year and corresponds to the level of July 2022," he emphasized.
Yevgeny Karabanov provided an overview of analysts' opinions from Oil World, who concluded that the rise in flaxseed prices over the past 8 weeks is due to a decrease in last year's harvest stocks.
"The deficit is particularly felt in the EU, where producers face a shortage of exports from Kazakhstan and Canada, import restrictions, in particular, a 20% customs duty on flaxseed imports from Russia from January 2025, and the preference of EU consumers to buy non-Russian origin products for the food and feed industry," the statement reads.
Adjacent prices of Kazakh flaxseed in Northwest Europe soared to $890/t on May 8, exceeding the previous figure by 20% as of March 27 and $254 or 40% higher than the average level in January 2025. Currently, the difference between the selling and buying price is approximately $25/t.
While linseed oil and meal prices have increased by only 33% and 8% respectively since the beginning of the year, leading to a reduction in processing profits in the EU.
Analysts from Oil World believe that "a sharp decline in processing volumes in the EU is expected in the coming months, leading to a reduction in linseed oil and meal production."
In contrast to the increasing deficit in the EU, Chinese processors apparently took advantage of relatively low prices for flaxseed in Russia to replenish stocks. About 40% of Russian flaxseed exports were directed to the EU before the introduction of increased customs duties in July 2024. Therefore, Russian suppliers had to seek additional demand in other regions.
Flaxseed imports to China increased to 413 thousand tons between January and March 2025 (compared to 166 thousand tons from October to December 2024 and 226 thousand tons for the same period a year earlier), almost reaching the record 418 thousand tons in April-June 2023.
"It is expected that global flaxseed and linseed seed exports will decrease by 20–25% to a 4-year minimum of 470–480 thousand tons in April-July. These are estimates based on preliminary sales volumes (mostly from Kazakhstan) in the first eight months of the current season, during which global deliveries increased by 12%, despite a 3% decrease in the world market," the analysts noted.
It is assumed that the majority of the reduction in deliveries in April-July 2025 will come from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Canada. Total flaxseed stocks in these three largest countries were estimated at 880 thousand tons as of the end of March (according to the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, 100 thousand tons from Kazakhstan), which is 140-150 thousand tons or 14% lower than the previous year's level, reducing available supplies.
"Therefore, a decrease in demand will become inevitable in the remainder of the season, which will reduce linseed oil and meal production outside China, where relatively high stocks collected in January-March 2025 will keep processing levels at a fairly high level," concluded the Oil World experts.