International trade - Fork Cast

Agricultural producers in Rostov region will start spring sowing a week earlier due to the weather. It is planned to sow 1.9 million hectares and increase the area of seed plantings for row crops. 88% of fertilizers and 105 thousand tons of seeds are stockpiled.

Conab experts forecast corn production in Brazil for the 2024/25 season to reach 122 million tons (+5.5%). The soybean forecast has also been adjusted to 166 million tons (+18.3 million tons). Corn yield is expected to increase by 9.9%, while exports will decrease to 34 million tons due to the growth of domestic demand.

The Chairman of the Agricultural Machinery Dealers Association believes that some Western manufacturers may return to the Russian market. John Deere and AGCO have temporarily stopped supplying, but small companies are already active. Trading centers offer local partnerships to re-enter the market.

In 2024, agricultural crops in the Krasnodar region grew worse than in the past 10 years: drought following rains reduced the yields of corn, soybeans, sugar beets, and sunflower. The overall harvest of grains and legumes decreased by 4.5%, but the region remains a leader in Russia in their collection.

According to FranceAgriMer, 73% of soft wheat sowings in France are in good condition, exceeding the level four years ago. Precipitation is delaying work, negatively affecting plants and raising concerns about the size of the harvest. Winter barley sowings are at their lowest level since 2020. The level of spring barley sowings is 23% below the average of the last 5 years.

The Minister of Food of India has announced the end of duty-free imports of yellow peas after February of the current year.

Last year, India purchased 3 million tons of yellow peas out of a total legume production volume of 6.7 million tons.

Logistics specialist Tiser Alnaser has reported the loading of 10 thousand tons of barley from the Voronezh region at the port of "Kavkaz" for export. The demand for Russian products is increasing due to unfavorable weather conditions in the Middle East. Drought in Latin America is also boosting demand for grain from Russia.

Argentina is facing a decrease in corn and soybean harvests, which is increasing the demand for animal feed.

In January, corn exports from Brazil decreased by 26.3% to 3.59 million tons. The main buyers of corn are Iran, Egypt, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Morocco.

Wheat exports decreased to 551.68 thousand tons, and soybeans to 1.07 million tons. In February, the export numbers were as follows: corn - 499.24 thousand tons, wheat - 210.21 thousand tons, soybeans - 348.19 thousand tons.

Strong rains in Argentina last week had a positive impact on agricultural crops, especially soybeans. Precipitation expected next week will be a determining factor in stabilizing the situation. A crop yield increase is expected following the drought.

In 2024, the corn harvest in Kazakhstan reached the lowest level in 3 seasons - 1 million tons. The reduction in sown areas is caused by the production surplus in 2023. Producers complain about low prices from processors.

The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia has reduced the export quotas for wheat in 2025 to 10.6 million tons among 219 companies. "Grain Gates" received the largest share - nearly 2.4 million tons. The quota does not apply to barley, maize, and rye. The penalty for exceeding the quota is a minimum of 100 euros per ton.

The Ministry of Foreign Trade of Thailand is introducing new requirements for corn importers: to take responsibility for the origin of the products, have a traceability system, and refrain from burning residues after harvesting. Non-compliance with the standards will result in restrictions.

The volume of corn imports in 2024 is expected to reach 2 million tons from Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia.