International trade - Fork Cast

Cleaning of the soybean fields in Brazil as of February 23 has reached 36.4% of the plan. Abundant rainfall has aided the process, but the southern part of the country is suffering from drought.

In the state of Rio Grande do Sul, a decrease in the productivity of oilseed soybeans by up to 40% is expected.

At the meeting in the Rostov region, plans were discussed to increase the use of domestic corn and sunflower seeds in 2025. The goal is to achieve a share of 68% and 57% respectively. It is also planned to increase the area of seed crops. In 2024, the share of domestic seeds was 62% and 43% respectively.

"SovEcon" has lowered the forecast for wheat exports from Russia for the 2024/25 season to 42.2 million tonnes. The forecast for grain exports for the next season has been increased to 38.9 million tonnes. Experts attribute the revision to low shipments and traders' lack of urgency in the quota conditions.

Wheat prices are rising due to low exports, reaching $248 per tonne.

The increased interest of China, Iran, and Central Asian countries has boosted demand for barley, which has become more expensive compared to wheat. In Kazakhstan, the price of barley reached 77-80 thousand tenge, with exports ranging from $180 to $215 per ton. Wheat was priced at 73-76 thousand tenge in the domestic market and $188-194 for exports. The rise in barley prices is impacting feed wheat. Kazakhstan has started to purchase wheat from Russia. Futures on the American exchange reached $216 per ton.

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and State Customs Service of Ukraine, 28.219 million tons of grain have been exported this season.

In February, 2.528 million tons were shipped. The export of flour amounted to 46.4 tons, with 2.9 tons in February, including 42.9 tons of wheat flour.

Introduction of new higher rates in tariffs for transportation of goods through Kazakhstan in the direction of the EEU in 2025 will be effective from 07.03.2025 to 31.12.2025. The previously established higher rates will be canceled. The rate increase is necessary to ensure the railway infrastructure.

Agricultural producers in Rostov region will start spring sowing a week earlier due to the weather. It is planned to sow 1.9 million hectares and increase the area of seed plantings for row crops. 88% of fertilizers and 105 thousand tons of seeds are stockpiled.

Conab experts forecast corn production in Brazil for the 2024/25 season to reach 122 million tons (+5.5%). The soybean forecast has also been adjusted to 166 million tons (+18.3 million tons). Corn yield is expected to increase by 9.9%, while exports will decrease to 34 million tons due to the growth of domestic demand.

The Chairman of the Agricultural Machinery Dealers Association believes that some Western manufacturers may return to the Russian market. John Deere and AGCO have temporarily stopped supplying, but small companies are already active. Trading centers offer local partnerships to re-enter the market.

In 2024, agricultural crops in the Krasnodar region grew worse than in the past 10 years: drought following rains reduced the yields of corn, soybeans, sugar beets, and sunflower. The overall harvest of grains and legumes decreased by 4.5%, but the region remains a leader in Russia in their collection.

According to FranceAgriMer, 73% of soft wheat sowings in France are in good condition, exceeding the level four years ago. Precipitation is delaying work, negatively affecting plants and raising concerns about the size of the harvest. Winter barley sowings are at their lowest level since 2020. The level of spring barley sowings is 23% below the average of the last 5 years.

The Minister of Food of India has announced the end of duty-free imports of yellow peas after February of the current year.

Last year, India purchased 3 million tons of yellow peas out of a total legume production volume of 6.7 million tons.