International trade - Fork Cast

Mostakbal Misr has canceled tenders for the purchase of wheat and vegetable oil, causing expectations among traders.

Direct deals by the agency could change the trading system. Traders are waiting for instructions from the agency.

In China, in the 2024/25 season, the soybean harvest will decrease by 3% to 1.12 million tons due to a decrease in sown areas, but the yield will increase by 2%. The demand for soybean seeds will fall by 5% to 580 thousand tons.

A growth in the production of rapeseed is forecasted: spring rapeseed by 10% and winter rapeseed by 9%.

The export duty rate on sunflower oil from the Russian Federation will increase to 9,195.8 rubles per ton in December, which is three times higher than in November. The duty rate on sunflower meal will also rise to 3,788.4 rubles. The decision to extend the duties until 2026 was made by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation in August 2024.

"Agricultural holding 'Astarta-Kyiv' has reported that sugar production at five plants has increased to 271 thousand tons of sugar since the beginning of August. The segment's revenue has grown by 19% to 169 million euros for 9 months. Sugar exports have increased by 43%, reaching 289 thousand tons."

Sales of agricultural machinery in Russia will decrease by 15% in 2024 and another 10% in the following year. Alexander Altynov expects 10-12 dealers to leave due to financial problems. The market heavily relies on "Rosagroleasing" and Chinese brands. Altynov predicts an increase in bankruptcies among dealers in 2025, which will lead to further sales decline.

Company AGROTRAY conducted 313 studies on winter wheat and rapeseed. 7 new varieties with increased yield and resistance have been developed. 2 wheat varieties and 5 rapeseed hybrids have been selected for production. Standard plant protection schemes have been tested. Herbicides and fungicides will be tested in 2025.

Agriculturists of the Republic of Tuva successfully received compensations from the insurance company "VSK" for insuring their crops against heat and drought. The amount of compensation was 2.5 million rubles, with an annual insurance premium of 142 thousand rubles. Agricultural insurance in the region has been paid out for the third year in a row, covering grain crops and expanding.

The volume of processing oilseeds in the EU increased by 11% in October, reaching 3.32 million tonnes. The total volume since the beginning of 2024 amounted to 33.04 million tonnes, exceeding the data for 2023. Rapeseed processing reached 1.69 million tonnes, soybeans - 1.07 million tonnes, sunflower - 554 thousand tonnes.

Areas under rapeseed and mustard in India will decrease due to high temperatures, forcing farmers to switch to less heat-tolerant but profitable crops. The harvest has suffered due to abnormal heat. Rapeseed sowing in neighboring states will also decrease. Tension in the industry is caused by low soybean prices and an increase in the minimum support price for rapeseed.

Prices for soybean oil in Chicago have dropped due to uncertainty in the US green energy program.

Meanwhile, futures for palm oil in Malaysia have also decreased due to a decline in exports.

Prices for sunflower oil in Ukrainian ports remain stable, but sunflower meal is becoming cheaper.

There is high demand for sunflower seeds due to a shortage of global supplies.

Artists in Kazakhstan are facing a problem with selling their rice due to falling prices. It is necessary to find a solution as the market is stagnant. Authorities are discussing the issue and looking for ways to support farmers whose harvest cannot be sold due to the current situation.

Rosselkhozbank predicts grain harvest in Russia in 2025 at the level of 139.5 million tons, thanks to the implementation of modern technologies and government support.

Other forecasts suggest more modest results. The area of sowing and yield will also increase.