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The grain harvest this year is expected to be around 120 million tons, slightly lower than last year's level of 125 million tons (according to Rosstat data without accounting for new regions). These forecasts were announced by Petr Chekmarev, Chairman of the Committee on Agro-Industrial Complex of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, RAS Academician, at the forum "Grain of Russia - 2025". He noted that the results will be good if the harvest reaches 120 million tons, and worse if the values are even lower.
Chekmarev pointed out that the weather conditions this year are not very favorable for winter crops, but the situation may change in the spring. He believes that the snow covering the fields will protect the winter crops from frost and prevent their destruction. However, an early spring and drought are expected, which may have a negative impact on yields. The Scientific Director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, Roman Vilfand, warned that in the coming week temperatures will be below normal in the regions of central and southern Russia, as well as in Siberia, the Volga region, the Urals, the Far East, and the North Caucasus republics.
According to Chekmarev, farmers are facing increasing costs for field work. Prices for necessary resources, such as mineral fertilizers and seeds, have significantly increased. This may affect the purchase of high-yield seeds and the overall costs of carrying out the work. Chekmarev estimates that the costs of spring work this year will amount to 1 trillion rubles.
Chekmarev noted that Russia is capable of producing an annual volume of grain of 200 million tons by sowing almost 50 million hectares. However, this is currently not required. In his opinion, the optimal level of grain production is 130 million tons, which allows meeting the needs of the domestic market and partially exporting. Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut previously announced Russia's plans to produce 170 million tons of grain by 2030, of which 80 million tons are expected to be exported.
Various sources provide different forecasts for grain harvest this year. ProZerno forecasts a collection of 122.9 million tons, including 77.44 million tons of wheat, 17.7 million tons of barley, and 14.55 million tons of corn, excluding new regions. The Russian Grain Union maintains its forecast at 125 million tons, depending on the weather conditions in the spring. The Institute for Agricultural Market Conjuncture has lowered the wheat crop forecast to 77 million tons in a negative scenario, 82 million tons in a moderate scenario, and 89 million tons in a positive one.
