IKAR has reduced its forecast for wheat production in Russia to 84 million tons due to unfavorable weather conditions, with exports also decreased.
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IKAR has reduced its forecast for wheat production in Russia to 84 million tons due to unfavorable weather conditions, with exports also decreased.

The ICAR Institute has reduced the wheat crop forecast in Russia for the current year to 84 million tons, with exports falling to 42 million tons. Unfavorable weather conditions and problems in the southern regions of the country have affected the harvest. The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia and the US Department of Agriculture have also presented their forecasts. Russian experts expect an increase in grain production to 130 million tons.

15 July 2025 15 July 2025

Institute for Agricultural Market Analysis (IKAR) has reduced its forecast for the harvested volume of wheat this year from 84.5 million tonnes to 84 million tonnes (excluding new regions). The forecast for agriculture export potential for the 2025/26 season has also been reduced by 0.5 million tonnes to 42 million tonnes said IKAR's CEO Dmitry Rylko to "Agroinvestor" magazine. The overall grain harvest forecast has been cut from 131.8 million tonnes to 130.3 million tonnes, with exports reduced from 55 million tonnes to 53.7 million tonnes. The changes are mainly due to dry and hot weather, as well as a decrease in the harvest forecast in Southern Russia, Rylko explained.

More detailed information on harvest gathering and export prospects will be presented by IKAR on July 17 at the conference "Where Margin — 2025" .

Ministry of Agriculture confirms the forecast for the main crop harvests, including gathering about 135 million tonnes of grain, said Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev at last week's commission meeting.

US Department of Agriculture in its July report increased the wheat harvest forecast in Russia by 0.5 million tonnes to 83.5 million tonnes (excluding Crimea and new regions), and the export forecast was raised by 1 million tonnes to 46 million tonnes. The forecast for feed grain harvest was reduced by 0.3 million tonnes to 37.43 million tonnes, with potential exports estimated at 7.28 million tonnes — 0.2 million tonnes less than in June. The reduction was due to barley: its harvest is estimated at 17.7 million tonnes (compared to 18 million tonnes in the previous report), and exports at 3.4 million tonnes (compared to 3.6 million tonnes). Corn harvest and export forecasts remain at 15 million tonnes and 3.6 million tonnes respectively.

According to the analytical company "ProZerno", the total grain harvest in Russia this season will reach 130 million tonnes. The company's CEO Vladimir Petrichenko believes that the production of all grain crops will increase compared to the previous agricultural year. Russian Grain Union confirms this forecast, suggesting that the total grain harvest will reach the level of the previous year at around 125 million tonnes without considering new territories, or 129 million tonnes with their inclusion.

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