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It is expected that the global extreme cocoa deficit will be eliminated by 2025. Commodity broker Marex Group forecasts that in the upcoming 2024-2025 season, cocoa production will exceed supply by more than 300 thousand tons. This season, starting in October, will be the first surplus season after three consecutive years of deficit. However, this year it is expected that the cocoa deficit may reach a record 700 thousand tons.
Due to a poor harvest in West Africa, cocoa prices worldwide have risen to historic highs, with May futures on the London Stock Exchange exceeding 10,000 pounds per ton. This is five times more than last year. In Russia, chocolate prices have already risen by 15% since the beginning of the year. To maintain sales, manufacturers are changing recipes, reducing the amount of chocolate and decreasing the weight of chocolate bars.
Vitaly Muravyev, the President of the confectionery factory "Victory," says: "We are not changing anything. It is wrong to worsen the recipe and use less chocolate. The share of consumption of dark chocolates is decreasing due to their higher cost. Milk chocolates, chocolate-covered products, and candies, which have been less affected by this price increase, continue to grow in volume. There is a redistribution within the assortment. For the consumer, chocolate with 70-80% content seems expensive. In fact, there is no shortage, it is a conditional deficit. Indeed, there is a crop shortage in Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire of about 30% this year. The price increase of cocoa, which especially affected cocoa products used in production, has led to a 30% decrease in the use of such products by chocolate manufacturers compared to last year. However, sales are increasing for some manufacturers and decreasing for others as consumers switch to products with lower cocoa content."
In the latest trading on the Intercontinental Exchange in London, July cocoa futures prices fell by more than 4% to $7,300 per ton.
