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This week, analysts from the Analytical Center "Rusagrotrans" raised their forecast for wheat exports in March. They now expect 1.85 million tons of wheat to be exported, which is 250 thousand tons more than their previous forecast. This is due to new sales that will be completed in the second half of March at higher export prices.
According to recent data, around 1.5 million tons of wheat were exported during the month. Last year in March, 4.74 million tons were exported. Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for delivery in April decreased by $1 and amount to $254/ton FOB.
Prices for Romanian and French wheat fell by $10 to $245/ton and $239/ton respectively. The price for American wheat decreased by $11 to $232/ton. Argentine wheat increased by $4 to $247/ton, while Australian wheat rose by $2 to $250/ton.
Analysts attribute the price drop to market pressure from favorable rainfall forecasts in Russia and some grain-producing regions in the United States. In the Great Plains of the US, most states have improving conditions for winter wheat, but the proportion of dry areas has increased to 38%, compared to 34% last week and 16% the previous year. Russia expects favorable rains in the next two weeks, which will promote the development of winter and spring crops. Temperatures will also decrease to average values after a prolonged period of unusually warm weather.
In deep-water ports, prices for wheat with 12.5% protein increased by 200 rubles last week to 17.7-17.8 thousand rubles/ton without VAT. In some cases, prices reached 18 thousand rubles/ton. Prices on shallow water rose by 100 rubles to 16.3-16.5 thousand rubles/ton. Last year, prices in deep-water ports were 13.15 thousand rubles/ton, and in shallow water - 11.8 thousand rubles/ton. CPT Novorossiysk prices with delivery by rail were 18.1-18.65 thousand rubles/ton, which is 200 rubles less than the previous week. However, market procurement activity remains low.
On the domestic market, wheat prices have remained almost unchanged. In the south of Russia, prices for 4th grade wheat rose by 100 rubles to 15.8-16.3 thousand rubles/ton without VAT (EXW elevator). In the central part of the country, prices remained at 15.7-16.1 thousand rubles/ton, while in the Volga region, they are at 15.8-16.2 thousand rubles/ton. In Siberia, prices for 4th grade wheat are at 11-12 thousand rubles/ton.
