Monitoring - Incubator

Analysts at SovEcon have reduced their forecast for Russian wheat exports for the current season to 42.2 million tonnes due to low profitability for exporters. For the next season, they expect export growth to reach 38.9 million tonnes. The wheat export quota may not have been fully utilized as traders aim to improve margins. SovEcon has warned of a slowdown in export pace due to limited supply, a strong ruble, and negative margins.

Russia increased its exports of mineral products and metals in 2024, while the export of agricultural products decreased. The total export amounted to 433.9 billion dollars, with imports at 283 billion. Asia became Russia's main partner. The export of agricultural products remained at the same level as in 2023, despite the instability of global prices.

The grain harvest is expected to reach 120 million tons. Weather conditions influence the situation, but forecasts remain optimistic.

Prices for resources for farmers are increasing, costs for spring work will reach 1 trillion rubles. Russia is capable of producing 200 million tons of grain, but plans to reduce the volume to 130 million tons. Inconsistent crop yield forecasts range from 122.9 to 125 million tons.

Production of commercial milk in Russia is expected to reach 26.3 million tons by 2025. Forecasts for the current year are conservative, showing a slight growth. By 2030, production could increase to 31.3 million tons.

Exports are expected to increase by 44%, while imports are projected to decrease by 18%.

Fishermen have decided to lower prices for red caviar before Maslenitsa and International Women's Day. In the Russian Far East, prices for pink salmon caviar start at 4,500 rubles per kilogram, which is 1.5 times cheaper than in December 2024.

Fishermen are ready to meet the demand, and a decrease in prices is expected. Caviar production has decreased by 2.5 times compared to 2023.

The share of domestic sunflower breeding in plantings will increase to 50% by 2027, thanks to the strengthening of import substitution. Russian seeds are cheaper and successfully compete in the market, while the creation of new resistant hybrids is a priority for breeders.

The operating cost index of milk production in 2024 increased by 11.9% compared to 2023 due to the rise in expenses on wages, compound feed, diesel fuel, and other items.

An increase in the cost price of milk is projected in 2025 due to the rise in interest rates on loans and other factors.

The government has updated the Strategy for the Development of Agriculture until 2030, aiming to increase production by 25%, export up to $55.2 billion, and investments by 12.2%. Moreover, it includes enhancing technological independence to 66.7% and improving workforce provision. It is essential to pay attention to the insufficient assessment of risks for the industry's development.

Turkey reduced wheat imports from Russia by 1.9 times, purchasing 2.28 million tons for the season. Russia exported 32.2 million tons of wheat, setting a new record. Egypt became the largest importer, purchasing 6.3 million tons. IKAR lowered the export forecast for the current season to 43 million tons.

Export of pork products will increase by 50% to 60-70 thousand tons in 2025. The growth will be supported by China. Last year showed an increase in exports to several countries, including Belarus, Vietnam, and Hong Kong. International market prices are favorable for Russian producers, without affecting domestic prices.