Monitoring - Fork Cast

The grain harvest forecast for 2024 is around 125 million tons, but there is a possibility of a decrease due to risks. Winter crops require high temperatures, and ice crust on the fields can damage plants.

Russia's grain exports have decreased to 47-48 million tons due to higher domestic prices and low reserves.

Starting from February 1, sunflower oil will increase from 1719 rubles to 17786 rubles per ton. The duty on meal will decrease by 882.9 rubles to 3888 rubles. Dmitry Ryalko, the Director of the Institute for Agrarian Market Conjuncture, warns about possible industry problems due to the decrease in oil prices and the increase in seed prices. Uncertainty in the global market also affects the situation.

By 2024, Russia has strengthened its position in the global export of vegetable oils, increasing its share to 8.5%. The export of oils has grown by 8%, leading to an 89% increase in capacity utilization within the country.

The volume of exports of oilseeds has decreased by 37% due to the introduction of export duties.

Company "EPT" plans to supply 26 million tons of grain to Iran from 2024 to 2035, with the possibility of increasing the volume to 55 million tons. The agreement is signed with the Iranian company IranianEurasia.

The project aims to increase trade turnover and develop the "North-South" transportation corridor.

Grain exports decreased by 23.2% to 2.5 million tons. The growth in shipments in the first half of December was replaced by a decline. Wheat prices are strengthening in Europe and Russia.

Domestic grain prices are fluctuating, while farmers are hopeful for growth. Exports to Egypt and Bangladesh have increased, with no deliveries to Saudi Arabia. Export quotas for grain in 2025 will be limited.

Swine production in Russia is planned to increase by 25% by 2030, reaching 7.19 million tons live weight. Investments in expanding production and primary meat processing are estimated at 72 billion rubles. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to attract 15,000 specialists in animal husbandry.

Food prices on the world market have been unstable this year, which has led to a decrease in exports. However, the volume of physical shipments has increased by 10%. Meat, dairy, and processed products were successfully exported. Russia aims to double agricultural exports by 2030.

The Russian Union of Flour Mills predicts an increase in flour production to 10.3 million tons in 2024. The production of wheat flour is growing, while rye flour is decreasing due to the high cost of grain. A decrease in rye harvest is expected in the future.

According to Rosstat, gasoline prices in the Kemerovo region are as follows: AI-92 - 52₽, AI-95 - 56.69₽, AI-98 - 75.28₽, diesel fuel - 69.74₽.

Kuzbass has some of the lowest gasoline prices, especially for AI-98. Kemerovo region is also among the top 10 regions with low prices for AI-92.

Oil Union forecast: the export duty on sunflower oil in December will increase to 8,000 rubles per ton, in January - up to 15,000 rubles per ton.

Estimates for oilseed crops were overstated; the shortfall is being compensated by yields in the Volga region and Altai. The average prices for sunflower seeds have reached a maximum in two years - 45,200 rubles per ton.

Last week, prices for Russian wheat decreased to $226/ton FOB. Prices for French wheat dropped to $238/ton, while American wheat increased to $258/ton.

Forecasts for corn and soybean harvest in the U.S. were lowered, but the overall forecast for global wheat production remained unchanged. Prices for wheat on the domestic market stayed stable.

There is a new section on the website dedicated to the regions of Russia actively involved in grain processing. It provides information on purchases and sales of agricultural products, production capacities, and infrastructure. The new section allows users to easily find companies, track prices, and establish partnerships.