Monitoring - Fork Cast

Grain exports decreased by 23.2% to 2.5 million tons. The growth in shipments in the first half of December was replaced by a decline. Wheat prices are strengthening in Europe and Russia.

Domestic grain prices are fluctuating, while farmers are hopeful for growth. Exports to Egypt and Bangladesh have increased, with no deliveries to Saudi Arabia. Export quotas for grain in 2025 will be limited.

Swine production in Russia is planned to increase by 25% by 2030, reaching 7.19 million tons live weight. Investments in expanding production and primary meat processing are estimated at 72 billion rubles. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to attract 15,000 specialists in animal husbandry.

Food prices on the world market have been unstable this year, which has led to a decrease in exports. However, the volume of physical shipments has increased by 10%. Meat, dairy, and processed products were successfully exported. Russia aims to double agricultural exports by 2030.

The Russian Union of Flour Mills predicts an increase in flour production to 10.3 million tons in 2024. The production of wheat flour is growing, while rye flour is decreasing due to the high cost of grain. A decrease in rye harvest is expected in the future.

According to Rosstat, gasoline prices in the Kemerovo region are as follows: AI-92 - 52₽, AI-95 - 56.69₽, AI-98 - 75.28₽, diesel fuel - 69.74₽.

Kuzbass has some of the lowest gasoline prices, especially for AI-98. Kemerovo region is also among the top 10 regions with low prices for AI-92.

Oil Union forecast: the export duty on sunflower oil in December will increase to 8,000 rubles per ton, in January - up to 15,000 rubles per ton.

Estimates for oilseed crops were overstated; the shortfall is being compensated by yields in the Volga region and Altai. The average prices for sunflower seeds have reached a maximum in two years - 45,200 rubles per ton.

Last week, prices for Russian wheat decreased to $226/ton FOB. Prices for French wheat dropped to $238/ton, while American wheat increased to $258/ton.

Forecasts for corn and soybean harvest in the U.S. were lowered, but the overall forecast for global wheat production remained unchanged. Prices for wheat on the domestic market stayed stable.

There is a new section on the website dedicated to the regions of Russia actively involved in grain processing. It provides information on purchases and sales of agricultural products, production capacities, and infrastructure. The new section allows users to easily find companies, track prices, and establish partnerships.

Prices for sunflower seeds in Russia are rising due to low yields and increased demand. Manufacturers note small seeds with less oil content, which also affects prices. Experts do not expect a sharp increase in prices in the future.

The Ministry of Agriculture and the American agricultural department confirm the yield forecasts. Sunflower harvesting in southern Russia has begun, and prices are expected to stabilize.

The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) has discovered high markups on bread in the largest retail chains, reaching up to 60% for common types. The Association of Retail Companies (AKORT) did not confirm the study, noting that social obligations are being met. Bread prices in October are 40% below the national average, and the price increase is due to rising production costs. Manufacturers are facing a shortage of staff, leading to higher wages, and are not rushing to raise prices on products.

It is expected that the grain harvest this year will amount to about 130 million tons, including 83 million tons of wheat. Poor weather in Siberia and collection issues in some regions have led to a lowering of the forecast. Already, 122 million tons of grain have been harvested, ensuring food security and creating potential for exports.

Raising excise taxes on alcoholic beverages could freeze investment projects in the beer industry for 33.5 billion rubles. Changes in tax legislation could reverse industry growth and trigger a crisis due to high excise duties.

The proposals of the beer producers' association include annual indexation and support for investors.