Monitoring - Fork Cast

Export of wheat and meslin from Russia is limited to a quota of 10.6 million tons due to low profitability. It is forecasted that the volume of shipments will be around 9 million tons. The decrease in the dollar value and the strengthening of the ruble are increasing costs.

In April, it is planned to export only 1.92 million tons, which is 2.5 times less than the previous year.

The government has introduced amendments to the agricultural development program, tightening the conditions for obtaining subsidies and grants.

The subsidy application process will be simplified, especially for agricultural insurance. Conditions for seed production and fish farming organizations will also change.

The President of the Russian Grain Union confirmed the grain harvest forecast - 125 million tons. Winter crops are in good condition, but there are risks due to a cold front. Snow will help preserve crops at temperatures below -20°C. There is not enough snow to ensure the required soil moisture level. It is planned to plant winter crops on 20 million hectares, including grains on 19.2 million hectares.

Forecast for 2025: According to the CEO of Soyuzmoloko, the production of commercial milk will remain at the level of 26.3 million tons. Two scenarios have been developed: milk prices may rise or remain at the inflation level.

By 2030, it is planned to increase production to 31.3 million tons in order to ensure food security.

Analysts have raised the forecast for wheat exports in March to 1.85 million tons. Wheat prices fell under pressure from favorable rain forecasts in Russia and the United States. Internal wheat prices remained practically unchanged.