The analytical center "SovEcon" has increased the forecast for wheat yield by 1.8 million tons, reaching 82.8 million tons thanks to favorable weather conditions in the Southern regions, including the Stavropol and Krasnodar Territories. At the same time, experts point out unfavorable conditions in the Rostov Region, where the main wheat production in Russia takes place. According to the center's initial assessment, the wheat harvest in the Southern Federal District is estimated at 31.6 million tons, which is 1 million tons less than last year. Analysts from "SovEcon" also reduced the estimated wheat sowing area this year by 0.4 million hectares, reducing the total sown area to 27.8 million hectares. This reduction mainly affected areas allocated for spring wheat, estimated at 12.7 million hectares.
According to data from the North Caucasus Hydrometeorological Center published in "RBC Rostov," currently, soil drought is observed in seven districts of the Rostov Region on winter wheat crops, and in one district, spring barley is also suffering from drought. In May, an emergency regime was declared in this region due to frosts, which, preliminarily estimated, led to losses on an area of about 240 thousand hectares out of a total sown area of 4.9 million hectares.
According to the chairman of the Rostov Regional Association of Peasant (Farm) Holdings and Agricultural Cooperatives Alexander Rodin, as quoted in "RBC Rostov," the scale of the drought far exceeds the official reports of the hydrometeorological center: the entire eastern sector of the region is at risk.
"Even in the dry year of 2024, there were no such problems," he compares.
The Director of the Grain Union of Agricultural Producers of the Rostov Region, Anatoly Kolchik, confirms that soil drought has affected almost all areas of the region. Moreover, it is accompanied by strong winds that lead to the drying out of the upper soil layer.
"The danger is the threatening situation for the entire agricultural complex, affecting not only winter crops but also spring crops, including corn and sunflower. Currently, the situation is so complex that the harvest is expected to be even lower than last year; more precisely, we will know by the end of June," the publication quotes Kolchik.
In the northern part of the Rostov Region, nine districts also face drought. According to the regional administration's press service, harvesting of grain is planned to begin in the third decade of June. The Minister of Agriculture of the region, Fyodor Dereka, noted that, understanding the difficulties of weather conditions related to land and atmospheric drought, a good foundation was laid for the future grain crop in autumn. Kuban farmers have sown winter crops on 1.8 million hectares, including 1.6 million hectares under wheat.
"Currently, there is not enough productive moisture reserves. Forecasts for the future harvest are bleak. The situation is especially difficult in the northern districts of the region. Following Governor Veniamin Kondratyev's instruction, the issue of declaring a state of emergency in several municipalities is under consideration," Dereka reported.
