The research center "SovEcon" has increased the forecast for this year's wheat harvest by 1.2 million tons, reaching 81 million tons (compared to 82.6 million tons the previous year). "The main factor improving the wheat yield predictions is the favorable weather changes in recent weeks. However, the current weather conditions are unlikely to fully offset the problems faced by winter wheat last year and early this spring," the center's report says.
The initial forecast for the total grain harvest by "SovEcon" for this year is 127.6 million tons (compared to 125.9 million tons the previous year), including estimates of barley harvest at 17.4 million tons (instead of 16.7 million tons last year) and corn at 14.6 million tons (compared to 14 million tons). "The harvest of grain and leguminous crops will increase overall against the expected rise in barley, corn, and other crop yields, allowing for adjustments to the decrease in wheat yield," the center's message emphasizes. With favorable weather conditions, an increase in the wheat and overall grain harvest forecast can be expected, according to analysts from "SovEcon". "However, the current optimism regarding the new harvest seems insufficiently justified at this time," experts clarify.
According to the center, the total sown area under grain crops will decrease to 45.7 million hectares from 46.1 million hectares last year. The decrease in plantings for the second consecutive year is due, in part, to the decrease in profitability and farmers shifting to more profitable oilseed crops, as explained by "SovEcon".
USDA forecasts the total wheat harvest in Russia at 83 million tons excluding Crimea and new regions. The corn harvest is estimated at 15 million tons, and barley at 18 million tons. According to the analytical firm "ProZerno", the wheat harvest for the 2025/26 season will reach 82.8 million tons (including Crimea but excluding new regions), barley harvest will amount to 18.1 million tons, and corn to 14.3 million tons.
Independent agricultural market specialist Alexander Korbut believes that the total grain harvest in Russia (including new regions and Crimea) could reach 129 million tons. "In the absence of additional natural disasters. But as we have seen in previous years, they are becoming more commonplace," he noted in an interview with "Agroinvestor". The wheat harvest forecast of 83 million tons, in his opinion, currently seems realistic, but final figures could end up higher or lower.
