During the second half of the agricultural season, from February 15 to June 30, there will be a restriction on the export of grain crops from Russia. Due to the lower harvest in 2024, the quota has decreased by two-thirds compared to the previous year. This ensures an adequate amount of grain for the domestic market.
The tariff quota for the export of wheat and meslin will be 10.6 million tons. However, there are no restrictions on the quota for barley, rye, and corn.
This decision was made by the government based on the forecast of production and consumption in the domestic market, as explained in the cabinet of ministers.
Against the backdrop of record grain harvests in 2022 (157.6 million tons) and 2023 (144.9 million tons), Russia achieved record grain export volumes last year, sending abroad 72 million tons, as Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut revealed at the All-Russian Agronomic Meeting.
Within the quota, there will be a variable rate of export duty (damping duty). Outside the quota, the rate will be 50%, but not less than 100 euros per ton of grain.
Tariff restrictions do not apply to the export of grain for international humanitarian aid provided to other countries based on government decisions.
According to the analytical center "Rusagrotrans," the top 5 importers of Russian grain in 2024 are estimated to be Egypt (11.1 million tons), Turkey (7.2 million tons), Iran (5.6 million tons), Saudi Arabia (4.6 million tons), and Bangladesh (3.9 million tons).
As the year 2024 turned out to be less fruitful due to weather conditions (preliminarily collected 128 million tons), exports are expected to reach up to 57 million tons in the current agro-season (lasting from July to June), according to Lut's forecasts. In the first half of the agro-season, 37 million tons of grain had already been exported abroad. In the second half of the season, exports will be limited by the quota.
A more pessimistic forecast comes from the Russian Grain Union. According to its president, Arkady Zlochevsky, in the current agro-season, Russia may export 47-48 million tons of grain, including 41 to 42 million tons of wheat. This could pose a risk of losing the leading position in wheat exports on the global market. Zlochevsky stated that in January 2025, exports had already halved compared to the same period last year. The expert's view points to export restrictions from Russia and external risks as reasons for this decline.
Meanwhile, the Federal Center for Agroexport at the Ministry of Agriculture forecasts that by 2030, Russian grain exports could exceed 75 million tons, valued at over 17 billion dollars. The majority of this volume, around 80%, will be wheat, 10% corn, and 9% barley.
Grain export quotas in Russia were introduced in 2020. From April 1 to June 30 of that year, 7 million tons were allowed for export. From February 15 to June 30, 2021, the quota was 17.5 million tons; in 2022, 11 million tons (including 8 million tons of wheat); in 2023, 25.5 million tons, and in 2024, 29 million tons were exported under the quota.
Russia exports grain and its processed products to more than 100 countries.