The analytical center "Rusagrotrans" has reduced its forecast for wheat exports in the current season from 42 million tonnes to 40-41 million tonnes (including exports to the EAEU countries). Within the quota of 10.6 million tonnes, which has been in effect since mid-February, no more than 7 million tonnes will be shipped, representing 66% of the available volume. This forecast is based on maintaining current export rates.
The export assessment results are significantly below the forecasts of global analytical centers, such as the USDA, which estimated Russia's wheat exports in February at 45.5 million tonnes. As noted by the analytical center "Rusagrotrans," replacing this volume with exports from EU countries will be a challenging task, especially considering the declining export potential from these countries.
According to the latest data, around 1.95 million tonnes of wheat were exported from Russia in February, marking a record low for the past five years. Analysts at "Rusagrotrans" predict a further decline in exports in March, as the applications from deep-water ports, which usually handle around 80% of all exports, amount to less than 1 million tonnes. Currently, it is forecasted that the March exports will range from 1.5 to 1.6 million tonnes, the lowest level in the past four years.
The main reasons for the decline in exports are the low profitability for exporters due to high domestic prices and the continued decrease in prices on the world market. From July to February, approximately 34.2 million tonnes of wheat have been exported from Russia.
