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In April, the export duty on sunflower oil will be 4568 rubles per ton, which is lower than in March (9333 rubles per ton), with an indicative price of $1065 per ton (accounting for a 6-cent increase compared to March). The duty on sunflower meal will also decrease from 1742 rubles per ton to 939.5 rubles per ton at an indicative price of $206.1 (as opposed to $204.1). This information was reported on the website of the Ministry of Agriculture. Earlier, Agroinvestor reported on the difficult situation in the oil and fat sector due to a lack of sunflower seeds and low export prices for processing products. Several plants were forced to temporarily suspend operations.
Taking into account the significant strengthening of the ruble, the high purchase cost of sunflower seeds, and no changes in export prices, the reduction of the export duty on oil will allow a slight decrease in losses for exporters, although it will not lead to fundamental changes in the market, said Mikhail Maltsev, Executive Director of the Fat-and-Oil Union. Since January of this year, processors' margins have been in the negative zone, reaching -23% in February. In April, despite the duty decrease, it will remain above minus 10%.
Maltsev noted that this indicates that with no decrease in domestic seed prices, the trend of reduced processing volumes will continue. Furthermore, by the end of the season, a paradoxical situation may arise: amid reduced sunflower production and an increase in processing capacities, leading to intensified competition for seeds, we may face significant sunflower seed surpluses.
According to the Head of the analytical company ProZerno, Vladimir Petrichenko, the reduction in export duties may slightly improve the market situation, but it will not lead to significant changes. The main problem lies in the acute shortage of raw materials—there is still a scarcity of sunflower seeds, and their prices are very high. According to the expert's estimates, the sunflower crop in 2024 will amount to 16.3 million tons, which is 600 thousand tons less than Rosstat's forecast. In his opinion, real changes in the oil and fat sector will only occur with the appearance of a new harvest, as currently, oil extraction plants continue to remain idle due to insufficient soy and rapeseed supply, on which some processors have temporarily shifted, while the quality of soy also raises certain doubts this season.
According to sources from Agroinvestor, the duty reduction in April will slightly alleviate the situation for plants in the oilseeds market, but it is unlikely to lead to significant changes in the industry's operations at current raw material prices. The analyst from Oleoscope, Liliya Varygina, also believes that this will help bring processors' margins closer to breakeven, but it does not imply fundamental changes in the absence of price dynamics in global markets and high purchase prices for raw materials domestically.
Varygina points out that processors' margins have remained negative since the beginning of the year, and the shutdown of plants is associated with the lack of profit. She confirms that several plants are indeed idle because the purchase price for seeds is very high. According to an Agroinvestor source, everything could change if the real sunflower seed purchase price drops to 35-36 thousand rubles per ton without VAT, but farmers are not yet selling seeds, even despite the start of mass planting. However, in the current global oil market situation, there is no guarantee that sunflower seed prices will continue to rise in the second half of spring. Varygina also notes that the need for financing spring field work may prompt farmers to change their strategy from holding onto raw materials to selling them. In her view, given the current price situation and the reduction of duties, internal purchase prices for seeds should not exceed 40,000 rubles per ton.
Last week, it was announced that the EFKO group had suspended the operation of oil extraction plants in Kropotkin and the Tbilisskaya stanitsa (Krasnodar Krai). The company's press service clarified that both enterprises primarily focus on exports. This decision is connected to the negative margin in the oilseed market, especially concerning exports. The company stated that the market conditions require more favorable terms; thus, the operation of the plants has been temporarily suspended.
