The analytical agency Green Pool has reduced the forecasted sugar surplus for the current 2020/21 season due to decreased production in India and Thailand. It has also decreased the surplus forecast for the next 2021/22 season, taking into account the growth in global sugar consumption and increased demand for sugar in China.
The surplus forecast for the current season has been reduced from 3.28 million tonnes to 0.5 million tonnes, and the expected surplus for the next season will be 4.08 million tonnes, which is 0.37 million tonnes lower than the forecast at the end of January.
Difficulties in production in Thailand and India have affected the current sugar crop, which Green Pool estimates at 31.6 million tonnes. Global sugar production in the current season is expected to increase by 8% to 186.72 million tonnes compared to the previous season when there was a deficit of 12.05 million tonnes in the market.
Sugar consumption in the current season is expected to be at 185.47 million tonnes, which is 0.3% higher due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumption is expected to rise to 187.36 million tonnes in the next season, which is 1% higher than last year.
It is forecasted that global sugar production in the next season will increase by 5.7 million tonnes to 192.4 million tonnes. However, Green Pool notes that production in Brazil could increase from 35 million tonnes if sugar prices favor this product.