In the current agricultural year (July 2024-June 2025), the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has reduced its forecast for wheat exports from Russia from 43.5 million to 43 million tons. The director of IKAR, Dmitry Rylko, reports that the estimate for wheat harvest in Russia has also decreased from 79-84-89 million to 77-82-87 million tons under different scenarios (negative, moderate, and positive).
Rylko explains that the main reserves of wheat remain far from export destinations and have low quality. Additionally, despite the increase in export prices, wheat exports from Russia are not particularly profitable. As a result, exporters face difficulties, also exacerbated by the issue of wheat export quotas, which will come into force in mid-February.
The head of IKAR notes that the reason for the reduced forecast for wheat harvest this year is the weather. A lack of precipitation in January and early February, especially in the central and northern parts of the Southern region of the country (Volgograd and part of the Rostov region), as well as the upcoming severe frosts, increase the risks. Although there will be snow, it may be insufficient to protect the crops.