The research division of BMI Fitch Solutions continues to forecast that the average annual price of crude palm oil (CPO) futures on the Bursa Malaysia exchange will reach 4150 ringgit per tonne by 2025.
According to the latest release published on Wednesday, BMI notes that the June 27 closing, fixed the CPO contracts for the next month at 3986 ringgit per tonne, resulting in an average annual price of 4360 ringgit per tonne.
Analysts expect palm oil prices to range between 3800-4000 ringgit per tonne by the end of 2025.
Data from BMI shows that palm oil prices came under pressure in the second quarter of 2025, declining by 17.7% from the beginning of the period due to the fall in global crude oil prices, increased production in Malaysia, and decreased demand.
Nevertheless, this report points to some market "support" in June after a brief uptick driven by geopolitical and political events.
Since the beginning of June, prices have risen by approximately 6% following the increase in global crude oil prices after the conflict between Israel and Iran.
This growth was reinforced by the EPA's announcement of increasing biofuel targets for 2026-2027, leading to an annual target increase of 67.5% by 2026.
Such proposals affected the soybean oil market but also had a favorable impact on palm oil prices, as reported by the company.
BMI forecasts that palm oil production volume in Malaysia will reach 19.5 million tonnes in the 2025/2026 season, which is 0.5% higher than the previous year.
Analysts note that the recent 5.9% year-on-year reduction in crude palm oil production in Malaysia for the first quarter of 2025 will support palm oil prices, but production is expected to recover in the coming months.
The latest monthly data (May 2025) indicate a production recovery: the total volume in April and May amounted to 3.5 million tonnes, which is 7.8% higher than the previous year, helping to alleviate pressure on the global market and exerting downward pressure on prices.