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The imposition of American sanctions against the Moscow Exchange raises doubts about the possibility of Russian goods being traded for dollars and euros. The US Department of the Treasury has announced sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, the National Settlement Depository, and the National Clearing Center (which together form the "Moscow Exchange" group).
The Union emphasizes that an infrastructure for exporting goods for rubles has already been established. Russian exporters express their commitment to international principles and readiness to remain reliable suppliers of grain and other products to ensure global food security.
The Central Bank of Russia stated that it will determine the official exchange rate of the ruble in the over-the-counter market. The exchange rate will remain market-driven and will only change based on the data used for its calculation. The regulator stressed that both international and domestic currency markets of most countries in the world utilize over-the-counter systems.
Georgy Ostapkovich, Director of the Center for Conjonctural Studies at the Higher School of Economics, believes that the new sanctions create a certain discomfort in trading with dollars and euros for exporters and importers of any goods. However, he is confident that bypass solutions have been found to address this situation.
He notes that there may be difficulties in conducting payments in the initial stages until these bypass solutions are implemented. However, the use of intermediaries leads to an increase in the cost of operations and goods, which in turn increases inflationary pressure. Ostapkovich pointed out that there will be problems, but they will be resolved, and this situation may make exports less profitable.
Despite the increasing use of settlements in rubles, the share of dollars and euros remains quite high, Ostapkovich said. He noted that the prospects for increasing settlements in rubles depend on agreements with specific friendly countries. Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut specified that about 10% of deals to purchase Russian products are concluded in rubles, especially with friendly countries. At the same time, the share of unfriendly currencies is decreasing.
Alexander Korbut, an independent expert in the grain market, believes that sanctions may affect the export and import of agricultural products, as payment and pricing systems on the exchange have been fine-tuned. The main currency of the global market, the dollar, continues to be the primary choice for a significant portion of buyers. He pointed out that while settlements in rubles are growing, the critical mass has not yet been reached, and the list of countries that can pay in rubles is limited.
Korbut believes that using alternative methods and conducting operations in dollars is still possible in conditions of complete over-the-counter trading. However, adapting to the settlement system will require time for both buyers and sellers. He is confident that in the short term, agricultural exports and imports may slow down compared to the previous year, but our agricultural business has previously successfully adapted to similar conditions.
However, this situation will lead to additional costs that are passed on to the primary links (agricultural producers) in exports and to the final ones (consumers) in imports.
