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This year is expected to see a record number of trials of Russian sunflower hybrids.
According to Dmitry Rylko, the general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Conjecture (IKAR), the areas allocated for oilseeds in Russia will continue to grow by 2025, reaching a new record. He shared his assumptions at the 16th "Where is the Margin" conference.
"This year, we expect to reach a record in the areas allocated for oilseeds - 19.7 million hectares excluding new territories," he said.
In the early 2000s, the areas planted with oilseeds in Russia were only 4.5 million hectares.
According to the presentation data, in the 2024/25 season, the sunflower areas amounted to 9.8 million hectares, and in the 2025/26 season, they will increase to 10.1 million hectares.
According to the head of IKAR, in 2024, many farms still used imported seeds from old stocks. The peak of trials of Russian sunflower hybrids is likely to come in 2025.
At the end of the 2024/25 season, it is expected that sunflower stocks will be around 200 thousand tons, the lowest level in recent years. Against this backdrop, competition for raw materials is increasing.
Over the next 3-5 years, the number of oil extraction plants in Russia will continue to grow, and processing volumes will increase by 4-6 million tons, requiring an additional 2.5 million hectares to be released for oilseeds, according to experts.
IKAR also expects a record for soybeans - 4.6 million hectares of sowing in the 2025/26 season. With high yields, the harvest in 2025 could reach 8.5 million tons, achieving Russia's self-sufficiency in this crop, considering the ban on GMO soy imports from January 1, 2025.
"However, the quality of domestic soybeans still raises doubts," noted Rylko.
Opening plants in Siberia may support rapeseed prices, which are currently lagging in value compared to the Southern and Central regions due to the introduction of export duties and price reductions in China, which continues to import this crop from Russia.
Another factor for the increase in areas planted with oilseeds may be the reseeding of fields with winter wheat. According to Rylko, the damage to this crop from natural disasters is still unclear, but at least its scale remains unknown.
Earlier at the conference, Rylko reported that "the profitability of wheat, barley, and corn, subject to export duties, has been lower in the past two years than that of sunflower, soybean, rapeseed, and some niche crops."
