It is expected that corn production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season will reach historically high levels, thanks to favorable weather conditions and an increase in sown areas, which will strengthen the country's position in the global agricultural market.
According to CONAB forecasts, the total corn production volume in Brazil will reach 124.7 million tons, which is 8.5% higher than the previous year. The majority of the crop comes from the "safrinha" second season, estimated at 98 million tons, accounting for about 80% of the total volume. According to USDA data, an even more optimistic result is projected - 126 million tons, driven by the expansion of sown areas to 22.3 million hectares.
Excessive rainfall at the beginning of the season has had a positive impact on crop development, especially in key regions, including Mato Grosso, where precipitation reached up to 2500 mm in some areas.
Despite the predicted high harvest, corn reserves in Brazil remain at a minimum level. CONAB reports extremely low corn stocks for the 2023/24 season, around 2 million tons, expected to increase to 5.5 million tons by January. According to USDA estimates, reserves by the end of February amount to 7.5 million tons, with an expected decrease to less than 3 million tons in the 2024/25 season.
It is expected that limited reserves and high demand will support corn prices, influencing global markets and possibly reducing the competitiveness of American deliveries.
The USDA forecasts further growth in corn production in Brazil to 130 million tons in the 2025/26 season, thanks to an increase in sown areas and stable demand.