Considering compensatory changes in major commodities, the forecast for total global grain production (wheat and coarse grains) remains at 2315 million tonnes. Adjustments include a decrease for the European Union and an increase for the USA, Australia, and Argentina. The Council's forecast for global consumption has been revised 4 million tonnes higher compared to the previous month to 2325 million tonnes. A stable level of carryover stocks at 581 million tonnes is forecasted.
It is expected that soybean trade in 2023/24 will increase by 2 million tonnes to 175 million tonnes, which is 1% higher than last year. The supply and demand forecast for 2024/25 remains largely unchanged, with end-of-season stocks at 82 million tonnes (+19% y/y). Global import demand is increasing by 1 million tonnes m/m.
There is expected to be a decrease in global rice stocks at the end of the season in 2023/24 by 1 million tonnes m/m. The forecast for 2024/25 remains unchanged with trade increasing to 54 million tonnes.
The IGC (GOI) index for grains and oilseeds rose by 5%, although average prices are still down by 15% y/y.
Moderate growth in global grain production is forecasted for 2024/25 to a record 2315 million tonnes. Consumption is expected to rise to a new peak of 2325 million tonnes. Global stocks are forecasted to be 581 million tonnes, the minimum in the last 10 seasons. A 7% decrease in global trade to 421 million tonnes is expected.
A record global soybean production (+7%) is expected in 2024/25. Trade is forecasted to grow to 178 million tonnes, with shipments to China matching the peak in 2023/24. Increased deliveries are expected from the USA and Brazil.
Forecasted growth in global rice production in 2023/24 and 2024/25. Consumption growth is forecasted for 2024/25. Increased trade is expected.
In 2024/25, an increase in global lentil production is expected. Consumption and stocks are forecasted to rise.
After reaching a minimum in August, the IGC GOI has recently slightly recovered. IGC GOI for wheat, maize, and rice showed different trends. The IGC GOI sub-index for soybeans increased by 8%, despite price decreases.