World market - Incubator

Export restrictions on palm oil from Indonesia have prompted experts to predict a decrease in production and the maintenance of high prices. Malaysia may benefit from this, as consumers may turn to its palm oil. Rising prices have also led to an increase in the import of CPO from Malaysia.

The ban on gasoline exports from Russia has been extended until September-October. The decision was made to provide additional protection. The ban does not apply to diesel fuel, but restrictions on its export will be imposed.

The soybean harvest in Russia is expected to reach 7.35 million tons this year. 4.05 million hectares of land have been sown with soybeans, with a 22% increase in the Central District and a 15% decrease in the Far Eastern District. Amur Region is the leader in soybean production.

The soybean freight collection in the country increased by 13.7% in 2023 compared to 2022.

The Ministry of Agriculture has announced the plans of Russian grain exporters in the markets of the Middle East, North Africa, India, and China. Turkey's refusal to import wheat will not affect Russia's exports; the volume of grain shipments will decrease to 60 million tons from July 1, 2024.

On July 30, 2024, the prices on the exchanges were as follows:

Corn on CBOT fell by 7.50 ¢/bsh to 388.75 ¢/bsh, SRW wheat on CBOT - by 7.00 ¢/bsh to 524.00 ¢/bsh, on KCBT - by 3.25 ¢/bsh to 550.25 ¢/bsh, on MGE - by 7.00 ¢/bsh to 584.50 ¢/bsh. Oats on CBOT increased by 2.75 ¢/bsh to 326.00 ¢/bsh, rough rice on CBOT - by 0.02 usd/cwt to 15.23 usd/cwt.

The price of August rapeseed futures in Paris fell by 4.5% due to prolonged rains, delaying the harvest. Rapeseed prices are on the rise due to high demand, but the drop in August futures is attributed to increased supplies. Prices for canola and rapeseed in Ukraine have also decreased. Traders are actively purchasing rapeseed for export to the EU.

World prices for wheat have decreased: soft and hard red winter wheat fell on exchanges, while prices for corn and rice have increased. The wheat index from Russia remained stable.

Crop sowing in Russia is 90% complete, including on 50 million hectares. Turkey has banned wheat imports. Analysts have reduced the wheat harvest forecast. Customs duties on wheat will increase from June 13. The State Fund has purchased 1,067 thousand tons of grain.

Kazakhstan has sown spring crops on 17.9 million hectares, and Ukraine on 13 million hectares.

Corn (CBOT) rose by 1.75 ¢/bsh to 396.25 ¢/bsh.

Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW) (CBOT) increased by 7.50 ¢/bsh to 531.00 ¢/bsh.

Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW) (KCBT) went up by 8.00 ¢/bsh to 553.50 ¢/bsh.

Hard Red Spring Wheat (HRS) (MGE) rose by 3.00 ¢/bsh to 591.50 ¢/bsh.

Oats (CBOT) rose by 1.00 ¢/bsh to 323.25 ¢/bsh.

Rough Rice (CBOT) decreased by 0.02 usd/cwt to 15.21 usd/cwt.

In the EU, sugar production has changed, Latvian factories have closed. Germany and Denmark are leading, Poland and Lithuania remain stable. Lithuania has reduced prices, Latvia is growing beets for Lithuanian factories. It is unclear whether the sugar industry in Latvia will recover.

As of July 25, 2024, the price of offers for delivery in September 2024 has dropped to $621.34 per ton, a decrease of $0.51. Over the last week, the price has increased by $3.21, while over the month it has fallen by $6.42.

The record high price was $983.92 (03.03.2022), and the minimum was $513.05 (08.04.2016).

Bad weather in Turkey has caused problems with the grain harvest for the 2024/25 year. The government has set procurement prices and banned wheat imports until a certain date, which will have a negative impact on the trade of these crops in the country.

The sugar market in New York and London closed with a decrease in prices due to the excess production in Brazil, improved weather forecasts in India and Thailand, and expectations of a global surplus in the next season.

Analysts predict an excess of 1.2 million tons in 2024/25, which contradicts previous forecasts.