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The upcoming drought in the Black Sea region may lead to a decrease in sunflower and corn harvest, while heavy rains in the USA after unusually hot weather may damage crops and disrupt price dynamics.
Meteorologist Chris Hyde notes that the weather forecast for the Black Sea region is cause for serious concern, as droughts and lack of precipitation are expected in July and August, which could harm important crops such as corn and sunflower in this region.
Record-high temperatures in major agricultural regions have led to delayed sowing and a negative impact on developing crops. Across Russia, China, India, and the USA, extremely hot weather and lack of precipitation are being observed over large agricultural areas.
Global wheat prices soared to a 10-month high in May due to adverse weather conditions that led to a reduction in the wheat harvest in Russia, the largest exporter.
Negative consequences for crops are possible in southern Russia due to soil moisture deficiency, as well as expected lower rainfall and higher temperatures in the Urals, Western Siberia, and Transbaikal, according to the Russian Hydrometeorological Center forecasts.
In southern and eastern regions of Ukraine, hot and dry weather has been observed, with rainfall from May 1 to June 10 amounting to only 20-50% of the average, according to state meteorologists. Drought is also hindering the development of winter and spring crops in some areas of Kharkiv and Kharkiv regions, as well as Donetsk region.
"May in Ukraine turned out to be one of the driest months in the past 30 years," state meteorologists reported. "In northern regions, particularly in Zhytomyr, hail damaged spring crops such as corn, soybeans, and sunflower."
In the US state of the United States, the largest food exporter, intense heat has affected parts of the east coast, while heavy rains in the key Midwest region and forecasts of wetter weather raise concerns about flooding.
"As for the Midwest region, the focus will shift from heat to heavy rains, which could lead to flooding in corn and soybean-producing areas, especially in the Upper Midwest," Hyde notes.
In Asia, heavy rains are expected to help alleviate a severe drought in some parts of China, the largest buyer of soybeans, and restore normal monsoons in India, where rainfall levels are only one-fifth of the average, aiding agriculture in the world's largest rice exporter and leading importer of edible oils.
"Corn and soybean production in northern and eastern regions of China has been a concern due to dry weather," Hyde said. "However, from July to September, normal weather and slightly above-average rainfall are expected, which will be favorable for agricultural crops."
The Chinese Meteorological Center reported that more rainfall is expected from July to September in some northern, northeastern, and western provinces, which will help increase the harvest.
"However, heavy rains are expected in some areas, so vigilance is needed against possible droughts and floods," the forecast states. It is also noted that higher humidity may trigger the development of plant diseases and insect pests.
In India, the monsoon gained the necessary momentum after a stagnant period of over a week, according to a weather department representative.
"It is now gaining the necessary strength to move to the northern plains. Heavy rains are expected in the coming weeks to make up for the precipitation deficit. July promises to be quite promising."
The weather forecast for Australia predicts normal weather, with increased rainfall expected in some areas, which positively impacts the wheat harvest forecast. In the coming months, weather in Argentina and Brazil is also expected to be mostly normal.
