Argus Media lowers Russia's wheat production forecast for 2025-2026 due to worsening prospects for spring wheat.

Argus Media, the British independent pricing agency, has revised down its forecast for wheat production in Russia for the 2025-2026 season to 80.3 million tonnes, compared to its previous estimate of 81.5 million tonnes in November. The worsening prospects for spring wheat are having a greater impact on the projected outcome of the agricultural year than improved conditions for winter wheat, according to Reuters, citing materials from the agency.

The improved conditions for plant development compared to November have led the company to increase its estimate of winter wheat acreage. However, the area is still expected to be smaller than the previous year. Meanwhile, winter wheat in grain-growing regions will continue to suffer from moisture deficiency, according to Argus.

Expectations for spring wheat sowing in Russia have declined, as the need to re-sow winter crops has weakened. In addition, farmers are shifting away from cereals in favor of oilseeds and legumes this spring.

The forecast for next season's harvest is also lower than the forecast for the current season (81.3 million tonnes). The forecast is based on a survey conducted from March 17th to 21st and was sent to clients on March 24th. It does not take into account Crimea and other new regions of Russia.